Iran will hold a presidential election in two weeks to select the successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who died last month in a helicopter crash. The world is keeping a close eye on Iran’s political landscape to see who will become the Islamic Republic’s next president and, if so, how that will affect Iran’s domestic and international policies.
Out of almost 80 hopefuls who enlisted to run for the administration, including four ladies, the Watchman Board has supported just six applicants. These people are allowed to campaign until June 27, one day before the election. Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, Saeed Jalili, and Alireza Zakani are on the approved list of candidates.
The stringent criteria set by the council and the high stakes of the upcoming election are reflected in this constrained field. The Guardian Council’s selection criteria place a strong emphasis on adhering to the Islamic Republic’s religious and revolutionary principles. Up-and-comers are evaluated on their obligation to these qualities, which are viewed as fundamental.
By following this procedure, it is made certain that only those who share the fundamental principles of the revolution are allowed to run for office. One striking part of the Watchman Committee’s last choice is the vast majority of hard-liners among the supported up-and-comers, with Pezeshkian, an individual from parliament for Tabriz, being the main eminent special case.
As a result, hard-line ideologies, which control both the parliament and the legislative branches, dominate the political landscape. If a hard-liner were to be elected president, the government’s conservative trajectory would be accelerated and power would be consolidated, with all branches of government operating under unified hard-line control. Hardliners are well-known for supporting a stricter interpretation and application of Islamic Republic’s revolutionary ideals and steadfast adherence to them.
They take a more assertive stance toward the West and the United States and reject any form of compromise or negotiation, particularly with regard to Iran’s nuclear program. Concessions are thought to show weakness. Hardliners push for strict religious laws to be enforced in the country. Their views also align well with the goals of the senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the region, which increases their influence. Numerous fronts exert significant pressure on the Iranian government.
The risk of broader regional destabilization and international repercussions has increased as a result of the dangerous tit-for-tat exchange of military actions caused by the escalating tensions between the region and Israel. The burdens placed on the government domestically are exacerbated by political and economic difficulties. In this context, some leaders see the election of a hard-liner as a strategic move to consolidate power across all government branches and provide a unified and potentially more resilient front against these multiple pressures.
The preference of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the most important consideration when determining the likely outcome of the presidential election. Recent trends in history suggest that the preferred candidate of the supreme leader frequently wins. For instance, Raisi was widely thought to be Khamenei’s choice and even a possibility for his replacement. Many people thought that the ruling elite had orchestrated his selection more to ensure continuity and alignment with the supreme leader’s vision.
Khamenei’s inclination for official up-and-comers is no doubt attached in the craving to keep up with control and guarantee that the president lines up with the all-encompassing goals of both himself and the IRGC.
An ideal president according to Khamenei is one who doesn’t eclipse or challenge the laid out plan and doesn’t take the spotlight or look for autonomous political power. Figures like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, who are frequently regarded as autonomous in their political ambitions, did not make the Guardian Council’s list due to this preference for loyalty and obedience over independent leadership. Qalibaf and Jalili stand out as the most likely candidates among the six approved candidates to meet the supreme leader’s requirements.
Qalibaf, a principlist inside Iran’s political range, has shown steady reliability to Khamenei. His professional direction, from serving in the IRGC to turning into the principal military administrator chosen as city chairman of Tehran and later the speaker of the Iranian parliament, highlights his well established associations and support from the most noteworthy echelons of force.
Similarly, Jalili, an ultraconservative who previously held the position of chief nuclear negotiator, has significant credentials, including having managed the office of the supreme leader for a number of years.
Because he lost a leg while serving in the Basij during the Iran-Iraq War, he is frequently referred to as “a living martyr.” Additionally, Jalili represented Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council as his personal representative. Both of these candidates are strong contenders in the upcoming election because they embody the ideological purity and loyalty valued by the supreme leader.
Basically, the political race in Iran comes at a basic crossroads, particularly following the unexpected demise of Raisi. Underscoring the government’s emphasis on loyalty to revolutionary principles and the supreme leader, the stringent screening process by the Guardian Council has reduced the candidates to six, primarily hardliners.
Iran’s hardline stance could become even more ingrained domestically and internationally as a result of this likely consolidation of conservative power. Favored are candidates like Qalibaf and Jalili, who have demonstrated unwavering loyalty to Khamenei and the IRGC and ideological alignment with them.
