In May, ahead of a snap presidential election, intelligence officials gave Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a grim report: the majority of Iranians planned to boycott the vote, and only about 13% of them would actually vote.
Five people with knowledge of the situation told Reuters that this is when Khamenei made the decision to carefully plan an election. This set the stage for Massoud Pezeshkian, a moderate who is well-known and trusted, to win the presidency in a race that would initially be dominated by hardliners.
According to the five individuals, who are two hardline sources, a top security official, and two insiders who are close to Khamenei’s inner circle, Khamenei gathered a few of his most trusted advisers to discuss his plan in at least three meetings in late May at his residence in a fortified compound in Tehran. The meetings were held at his residence.
According to a person briefed on the meetings, the supreme leader ordered those present to find a way to steer the election because he was concerned that a low turnout would damage the credibility of the clerical establishment. After President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in May, the election was called off.
His death shattered the plans of many other hardliners who wanted him to succeed Khamenei, who was 85 years old at the time, and sparked a race among hardliners to influence the next supreme leader’s selection.
A small group of senior officials and security aides, his close ally and adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, and two senior commanders of the powerful elite Revolutionary Guards attended the meetings at Khamenei’s residence. On Wednesday, members of the opposition slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with vehement opposition in the Knesset. According to the five individuals who were briefed in detail about what Khamenei said during the meetings regarding his plan and its goals, Khamenei’s goal was to preserve the Islamic Republic in the face of domestic dissension as well as increased tensions with the West and Israel over Gaza. These tensions were made worse by the involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon, one of Tehran’s allies, and the Houthis in Yemen.
According to an insider who was informed about the meeting, Khamenei believed that Iran needed a president who could appeal to a variety of social classes while not challenging the Shi’ite theocracy in power. At the second meeting, a number of names were mentioned. According to two sources, Khamenei suggested Pezeshkian as a candidate who could ensure a smooth selection process for the next supreme leader, bridge the gap between the clerical establishment and the people, and foster unity among those in power. Saeed Laylaz, a pro-reform analyst based in Tehran, stated, “It was a flawless plan by the supreme leader… which guaranteed the survival of the Islamic Republic.”
Laylaz stated, “Pezeshkian will avoid any crisis at home, whether with the establishment or the nation.” “That will enable top leaders to plan the succession and make decisions about it in a calm environment,” Pezeshkian’s office, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ public relations office, and Khamenei’s office could not be reached for comment. The office of Velayati declined to comment.
Engineering of Elections? Although the new president will not likely make any significant changes to Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, nor will he likely end the country’s support for militias in the region.
However, he will be heavily involved in selecting the person who will succeed Khamenei, who is in charge of major state issues. According to the sources, Pezeshkian’s mild demeanor would appease disgruntled Iranians, guarantee domestic stability in the face of growing pressure from abroad, and provide Khamenei with a trusted ally during the eventual succession process.
According to a regional source close to Iranian power circles, Pezeshkian’s election was “engineered” to ease tensions following a wave of popular protests sparked by Raisi’s tighter restrictions on social freedoms and the death of a young woman in custody in 2022.
According to two sources, the registration of then-lawmaker Pezeshkian to run in the June 28 election, encouraged by pragmatic former officials with ties to the supreme leader’s office, sparked the initial phase of Khamenei’s strategy. They claimed that Pezeshkian was unaware of the decisions made behind the scenes.
He didn’t even expect to be approved by the Guardian Council, a Khamenei-aligned unelected vetting body made up of six clerics and six jurists who have previously banned numerous moderate and prominent conservative candidates, according to a source close to him. According to five people familiar with the situation, the vetting council approved two prominent hardline candidates, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Khamenei’s plan was intended to appear fair and democratic.
As a result, they would likely split the votes of hardliner voters, making it harder for them to advance to a second round. Noureddin Pirmoazen, a reformer who is now based in the United States, stated that Jalili is believed to have already chosen its candidate to succeed Khamenei. He belongs to the ultra-hardline camp of “Paydari,” which advocates tighter social restrictions, self-reliance, and a hawkish foreign policy.
Three analysts and two diplomats told Reuters that a victory for Jalili, who opposed the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, would have sent a negative message to the West as it increased its pressure on Tehran over its rapidly progressing uranium enrichment program.
One Western diplomat in the region stated, “With the increased likelihood of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Islamic Republic needed a moderate figure to keep dialogue with the West open and reduce tensions.” “It was a transparent and impartial election,” stated a spokesperson for the Guardian Council.
For comment, Jalili and Qalibaf could not be reached. A U.S. “We can’t speculate on specific theories of what may have transpired behind the scenes of Iran’s recent presidential election,” a spokesperson for the State Department stated.
We know for certain that Iranian elections are neither free nor fair. While a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council did not directly respond to questions regarding the main points of this story, she did state that Washington did not anticipate that the elections would result in a fundamental shift in Iran’s direction or an increase in respect for the human rights of its citizens.
The desired result Analysts said that the majority of Pezeshkian’s first-round supporters were young people or members of the urban middle class who were disillusioned by years of security crackdowns. Pezeshkian is an ethnic minority in Azerbaijan.
However, there was a run-off between Pezeshkian and the fervently anti-Western Jalili, and voter turnout was just 40%, the lowest of any election in the Islamic Republic. Qalibaf, a security hawk who has supported the power of Islamic clerics and echoed Khamenei’s views on every major issue, came in third. Many Iranians who voted for Qalibaf or abstained voted for Pezeshkian in the second round on July 5, increasing the turnover to almost 50% of Iran’s 61 million voters. They were concerned about Jalili’s hostile domestic and foreign policy. In the end, Khamenei’s strategy resulted in the desired outcome. With 54% of the vote, Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon supported by reformers, moderate conservatives, and ethnic minorities, prevailed. “I am grateful to the supreme leader. “I don’t think my name would have easily come out of the ballot boxes if it weren’t for him,” Pezeshkian stated on state television.
Pezeshkian was reportedly referring to an order from the supreme leader to electoral officials to ensure that votes were correctly counted, according to two Khamenei-related sources. There were no allegations of vote rigging, according to the electoral authorities. Loyal to Iran’s theocratic regime, Pezeshkian has pledged to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over the now-stalled talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, and boost social liberalization prospects.
He has advocated for the rights of women and ethnic minorities and criticized the way the establishment handled the 2022 death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, who was in custody for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code. Amini died while in custody. In 2022, Pezeshkian stated, “They arrest a girl because a few strands of her hair are showing… and return her dead body to her family.”
“This behavior cannot continue.” However, given that Pezeshkian has publicly stated that he has no intention of confronting Iran’s powerful clerics and security hawks, many analysts are sceptical about the possibility that he will be able to fulfill all of his campaign promises.
