According to a report released on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that this year’s global electricity demand will rise at its fastest rate in nearly 20 years due to rising air conditioning demand.
It predicted that the trend, which is expected to continue into 2025, will continue to support the use of coal power even as the production of renewable energy grows. After a year of record-setting global temperatures and severe heatwaves, grids were forced to maintain a reliable but dirtier baseload supply from sources like coal, and it is anticipated that this trend will continue.
According to IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori, “Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heatwaves.”
The IEA stated that rising artificial intelligence (AI) demand for electricity is also drawing attention to data center demand patterns, posing questions regarding deployment, demand projections, and energy efficiency, among other topics.
According to IEA data, global power consumption is expected to rise by around 4% in 2024, the highest rate since 2007, and the trend is expected to continue at the same rate in 2025, compared to a demand increase of 2.5% in 2023. According to IEA data, demand in India is expected to rise by 8% in 2024, while demand in China is expected to grow by 6%, down 1% from 2023 as the Chinese economy continues to restructure.
The European Union is expected to grow by 1.7% after two years of contraction, but the pace of growth is still uncertain. The United States should also grow by 3% after falling in 2023 due to mild weather. Production of renewable energy is also expected to rise in the coming years, with the source expected to account for 35% of global supply in 2025, up 5% from 2023.
This is expected to propel solar and wind past hydropower’s share of the mix. It is anticipated that total renewable generation will also surpass coal-fired electricity generation in 2025; however, the resource that produces the most pollution is anticipated to remain resilient in 2024, adding less than 1% depending on hydropower output, particularly in China. According to the IEA, global power sector carbon emissions are plateauing, with slight growth anticipated this year before falling back in 2025.
