The longtime leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated by Israel, marking a significant turning point in the country’s conflict with the militant Lebanese organization.
It might have moved the region closer to a far larger and more destructive confrontation that involves both the US and Iran.
What direction is it likely to take next?
That primarily rests on three fundamental inquiries.How would Hezbollah respond?
Hezbollah is in shock after another strike.
With the deaths of over a dozen key leaders, its command structure has been completely dismantled. Its armaments have been damaged by air attacks, and the startling explosions of its pagers and walkie-talkies have disrupted its communications.
“The loss of Hassan Nasrallah will have huge ramifications, potentially destabilizing the group and altering its political and military strategies in the short term,” says Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East security analyst based in the United States.
But it is probably unrealistic to think that this fiercely anti-Israel organization will suddenly quit up and seek peace on Israel’s terms.
Hezbollah has already sworn to carry on with the conflict. Thousands of fighters remain, many of whom are recent Syrian war veterans, and they want retribution.
It still possesses a sizable missile arsenal, many of which are long-range, highly accurate weapons that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv and other cities. Its ranks will be under pressure to use those quickly so they do not get decimated as well.
But if they do, in a massive assault that overwhelms Israel’s air defenses and murders civilians, Israel’s reaction is probably going to be disastrous, destroying most of Lebanon’s infrastructure and possibly even reaching Iran.
How is Iran going to respond?
The impact of this assassination on Iran and Hezbollah is equal. Five days of mourning have already been announced.
In case Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, the organization’s leader, is also slain, emergency measures have also been arranged, including his hiding.
Iran has not yet taken revenge for the dehumanizing murder of Hamas leadership leader Ismail Haniyeh in a guesthouse in Tehran in July. Hardliners inside the regime will be thinking about how to respond to what has happened.
The “Axis of Resistance,” an alliance of heavily armed militias centered on Iran, spans the whole Middle East.
In addition to Hezbollah, it has many factions in Syria and Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran may request that these organizations intensify their attacks on US and Israeli bases in the area.
However, Iran would probably tailor its response to stop just short of starting a conflict that it has no chance of winning.
How is Israel going to respond?
Before this assassination, if anyone was unsure, they will not be now.
It is quite evident that Israel has no intention of stopping its military campaign for the 21-day cease-fire that has been requested by 12 countries, including the US, its closest friend.
According to its military, Hezbollah is currently on the defensive, therefore it will wish to
