The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is shifting. Towards the end of 2020, Israel and its former Arab foes normalized relations, a surprising move that is paving the way for cooperation and sparked hope for peace in the Middle East. These hopes have been further fueled by Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s recent decision to resume diplomatic relations, ending a three-year stalemate between the two nations. Although it is unclear how much the two intend to cooperate this year, the move could change the state of play in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia and Qatar can sustainably establish peaceful relations, it could help undermine Iran’s growing power in the region, as well as enhancing trade collaborations, boosting economic prospects for the region.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia share a checkered history. Over the past decade, Qatar has drawn heavy criticism from its neighbors because of its ongoing support for Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a designated terrorist organization. In addition, Qatar maintains strong relations with Iran, a Shia Muslim nation, as the countries share the world’s largest gas field. For many years, Iran has tried to expand its geopolitical influence in the region and across the world using proxies and by involving itself in other countries’ domestic affairs. This has drawn significant backlash from countries such as Saudi Arabia. Today, the Kingdom, along with numerous other regional powers and the United States, are actively working to undercut Iran’s growing influence. Siding with Saudi Arabia, regional experts often frame the Persian nation as a significant threat to stability in the Middle East.
The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar came to a head in January 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt severed all diplomatic and commercial relations with Qatar, imposing a blockade on the country. As a result, Qatar’s land border was closed. Qatari ships were banned from docking at numerous foreign ports, and its airplanes were not permitted to fly in most of the regions’ airspace. The four nations demanded Qatar meet 13 conditions if it wanted the embargo to end. These included weakening its diplomatic ties with Iran, ending its support for terrorism, and shutting down a Turkish military base in Qatar. However, Qatar refused to capitulate to the demands, claiming that the blockade was a violation of international law. Instead, the country took legal action against some of the blockading nations and established trade routes with Iran and Turkey to sustain its population.
Now, after three years, thanks to Kuwaiti and American mediators, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have restored diplomatic relations. The two nations rekindled relations at the 41st Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit earlier this month, hugging upon arrival in Saudi Arabia. At the summit, the leaders of the six GCC countries signed an agreement affirming “our Gulf, Arab, and Islamic solidarity and stability.” The agreement emphasized the need for unity in the region, especially in the face of Iran’s growing prowess. This is a pivotal moment for the GCC and suggests that a new Middle East is in the making.
Although it is early days, the re-establishment of diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries could have profound ripple effects across the Middle East. The statements made at this year’s GCC summit also indicates a turning point in Qatar’s relations with Iran and may result in mounting pressure against the Iranian regime. In addition, the 2017 blockade was in many ways intertwined with numerous other geopolitical events in the Middle East. These include ongoing disputes between Egypt and Turkey over the Muslim Brotherhood, the proxy war in Libya, and the ongoing civil war in Yemen. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Qatar could kickstart efforts to resolve some of these disputes, contributing to peace and stability in the region. Further, the rekindling of relations between the two Gulf nations could also pave the way for increased trade. Given that the coronavirus pandemic has upended the global economy, new commercial activity in the region could help boost economic growth and employment opportunities.
Over the past three years, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been at an all-time high. The stand-off between the two nations has been one of the largest sources of tension in the region for the past several years. It has significantly hindered cooperation at a time when it was needed most, during the COVID-19 pandemic. If implemented correctly, this rapprochement could help reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, as well as undermining Iran’s expanding power in the region.
