In September, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the first Arab nation to normalize relations with Israel since 1994. Since then, other countries, including Bahrain and Sudan, have followed suit. Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump and geopolitical experts have also indicated that other countries, including Oman, may also join this movement. Like many other Gulf nations, Oman could reap the significant benefits of a newfound partnership with Israel. However, unlike its regional counterparts, the Sultanate has a strong relationship with Iran, creating a difficult circumstance for the Gulf monarchy.
Oman and Iran share a decades-long relationship that stretches back to the early 1970s when Iranian troops helped Sultan Qaboos and his forces end an 11-year long revolution taking place in the southern part of Oman. The victory helped Qaboos solidify his power and gave birth to the modern Omani state. The victory also strengthened the relationship between the two Middle Eastern powers, as Iran lent support to Oman when neighboring Arab states refused to. Since then, Oman has been an essential ally of Iran in the region.
Oman was the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state to remain neutral during the Iran-Iraq war, and it is the only Arab Gulf country that engages in joint military exercises with Iran. In addition, the monarchy assisted Iran in the diplomatic arena as well. The Sultanate played a critical mediating role during disputes between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and other Gulf states, as well as between Tehran and Washington. It also hosted secret talks between American and Iranian officials related to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Whilst Oman has become the middleman between major regional rivals, Gulf nations, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, do not look favorably upon Oman’s relationship with Iran. Over the past several years, Gulf nations have grown increasingly concerned about Iran’s plan to expand its influence in the region, and its rising involvement in the domestic affairs of vulnerable countries such as Lebanon and Yemen. From the perspective of these Gulf nations, Iran is a conduit for conflict, instability, and terrorism in the region, and any country that aligns with Tehran, therefore, supports these harmful values. If Oman were to normalize relations with Israel, however, its Gulf allies would see it as supporting values such as peace, stability, and freedom.
Thus far, Oman has reacted favorably toward the idea of Arab nations normalizing relations with Israel. The Sultanate was one of only three Arab League nations that did not take diplomatic action against Egypt for normalizing ties with Israel in 1979. Additionally, when Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, Oman responded positively. Further, in October, after a historic surprise visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Oman, the Omani Minister of Foreign Affairs called on the other GCC members to recognize Israel. However, Iran has significantly criticized the UAE and Bahrain for normalizing relations with Israel and has indicated that it will respond to any rise in regional threats. While a deal with Israel would risk Oman’s negotiating power and close ties with Iran, it should consider joining forces with regional powers who strive for Middle East peace.
Despite the potential fall out with Iran, an Israel-Oman alliance would confer numerous benefits, especially commercially. Both Oman and Israel boast robust technology sector expertise. For example, the Global Cybersecurity Index revealed that Oman was third in the world in a ranking that evaluates nations based on their preparedness against cyber-attacks. Similarly, Bloomberg’s 2020 ranking of innovative states placed Israel at 6th in the world. Israel is also a world leader in R&D expenditures, and it is home to 10.5% of all global AI startups. An alliance between the two countries could, therefore, create numerous collaboration opportunities.
A peace deal could also encourage greater cooperation between Oman and Israel on trade and the military sector. Both Oman and Israel are nations with comprehensive military capabilities. A deal could also pave the way for Oman to gain access to specialized Israeli and U.S. military technology. Following the formalization of the Abraham Accords, the UAE and Bahrain both made requests to the U.S. to purchase its F-35 fighter jets, the Emirates also inquired about purchasing Israel’s renowned Iron Dome missile defense system, perhaps Oman could be next in line to obtain these advanced systems.
Oman has a chance to disassociate itself from Iran and join its Gulf allies on the quest for Middle East peace. While it may be difficult given their long-standing friendship, risking its role as a mediator, it is time for an Oman-Israel partnership. Not only will the Sultanate contribute to regional peace, but it will also reap the trade, military, and commercial benefits.
