June has officially become the hottest month on record in the past 174 years, surpassing the previous global record by nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The average global temperature for June was 61.79 degrees Fahrenheit (16.55 degrees Celsius), which is 1.89 degrees Fahrenheit (1.05 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average.
This marks the first time that a summer month has been more than a degree Celsius hotter than normal globally. Other monitoring systems such as NASA, Berkeley Earth, and Europe’s Copernicus had already declared June as the hottest month on record.
NOAA is considered the standard authority for climate records due to its extensive data going back to 1850.
The increase in temperature from the previous record is significant, as global monthly records usually only increase by hundredths of a degree, rather than quarters. NOAA climate scientist Ahira Sanchez-Lugo described it as a “considerably big jump.” The rising temperatures, along with extreme events like wildfires, pollution, and flooding, align with the expected impacts of a warming climate, according to Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald.
Both land and ocean temperatures reached record highs in June, with the sea surface setting monthly temperature records for the third consecutive month. The North Atlantic has experienced exceptionally warm temperatures since mid-March, while the Caribbean region and the United Kingdom also witnessed record-breaking heat.
The first half of 2023 ranks as the third hottest January through June period on record, following 2016 and 2020, according to NOAA. There is a 20% chance that 2023 will become the hottest year on record, with next year being more likely.
However, the likelihood of breaking the record is increasing, with some scientists predicting a close competition between 2016, 2020, and 2023. Berkeley Earth estimates an 80% chance of 2023 ending up as the hottest year on record.
July typically represents the peak of summer heat, and previous records show it as the hottest month of the year. The current record for July, and any month, is 62.08 degrees Fahrenheit (16.71 degrees Celsius), set in both July 2019 and July 2021. Preliminary analysis suggests that the first days of July have been hotter than ever recorded, with the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the World Meteorological Organization declaring it the hottest week on record.
NOAA’s recordings indicate exceptionally high water temperatures around Florida, reaching 98 degrees Fahrenheit (36.7 degrees Celsius) near the Everglades and 97 degrees Fahrenheit (36.1 degrees Celsius) near the Florida Keys.
Forecasts also predict near-record temperatures of around 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4 degrees Celsius) in Death Valley..
According to NOAA, the record-breaking heat in June can be attributed to long-term global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, combined with the influence of a natural climate phenomenon called El Niño, which warms parts of the Pacific and affects weather patterns worldwide. Although the current El Niño is considered weak to moderate, it is expected to strengthen in the winter, leading to predictions of even higher temperatures in 2024 compared to this year.
NOAA emphasizes that while El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, have short-term impacts on temperatures, the long-term effects of human-caused climate change are far more significant. Human-driven global warming adds a permanent “super El Niño” level of heat to the atmosphere every decade, contributing to rising temperatures over time. Furthermore, June saw record-low levels of global and Antarctic sea ice, as reported by NOAA.
