Turkey is in a tenuous geopolitical position. The country’s exploration in the Mediterranean, violent expansion into Syria and Libya and its increasingly close relations with Russia and Iran have resulted in significant global outcry. Despite alliances and partnerships with Turkey, the United States and many European and Gulf nations view the country as a destabilizing regional threat that must be dealt with before regional chaos ensues. However, Turkey is also strategically positioned to provide significant value to these nations. This leaves global powers with a striking question, is Turkey a threat or an opportunity?
Over the past several years, relations between Turkey and its NATO and Gulf allies have deteriorated. Turkey established more robust ties with the West’s enemies, strengthening its relations with Iran and Russia when the United States decided to back Kurdish forces in Syria.
Since World War I, Turkey has had a longstanding history of suppressing Kurdish sovereignty movements, such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey’s involvement in northern Syria is primarily designed to suppress PKK-aligned Kurdish forces. Indeed, the U.S.’ decision to back Kurdish forces in Syria in an attempt to battle the Islamic State went directly against Turkey’s extensive history of anti-Kurd policies, and it encouraged the country to deepen relations with other allies such as Russia. The development of these relationships has enabled Turkey to benefit militarily. For example, in 2019, Turkey purchased numerous S400 missiles from Russia, which are advanced enough to shoot down planes flying overhead.
Turkey has also established a concerning relationship with Iran and has assisted the country skirt U.S.-imposed sanctions. An investigation revealed that between 2012 and 2017, the Turkish state-owned bank Turkiye Halk Bankasi disguised transactions as humanitarian payments to move and hide billions of dollars. The investigation outlined that the state-owned bank served as the “sole repository” for approximately $20 billion in proceeds from oil and gas that Iran sold to Turkey. At least $1 billion of the proceeds was routed through U.S. financial institutions. Evidently, efforts by Ankara are proving to damage regional stability.
Turkey’s geopolitical actions increasingly pose regional and global security threats. The country’s involvement in Libya, its gas exploration, and drilling efforts in the Mediterranean have damaged the country’s relations with critical allies such as Greece and France, heightening tensions with key NATO players. Further, Turkey’s wrath has enabled the Islamic State to strengthen its forces significantly. According to Brett McGurk, former U.S. President Special Envoy in the coalition against the Islamic State, 40,000 jihadist fighters from 110 countries entered Syria to join the Islamic State through Turkey. Despite numerous requests by McGurk and coalition allies, Turkey refused to seal the border. However, when Kurdish fighters assumed control of segments of the border, the country responded by immediately sealing it with a wall. Turkish-backed fighters have also repeatedly been accused of carrying out human rights atrocities in Syria. Despite video evidence, Turkey has not held these individuals accountable and is, in fact, turning a blind eye.
While Turkey continues to stray away from an alliance with the U.S. and other Western allies, it may be beneficial for these powers to invest in rehabilitating their relationship with the country. If Turkey continues to foster relations with Russia and Iran, it could bolster both countries’ regional and global influence. This is especially important given that Turkey is strategically located between Asia, Europe, Russia, and the Arab world, a prime trade, and geopolitical location. The country has also begun forging alliances with nations across Africa. Therefore, it can provide its allies with a vital opportunity to expand their soft power and military might across the globe.
In terms of defense, Western powers should also consider rebuilding their relationship with Turkey as the country has a strong military presence, which could prove integral should Western allies and NATO enter into a conflict with Iran, Russia, or another power. Lastly, although Turkey’s political spectrum has become increasingly repressive, the 2018 municipal elections saw a resurgence of democracy in the country. Western powers should take advantage of this and help re-instill this element of democracy, only then will Turkey be a viable partner for the West.
Over the past several years, Turkey has strayed away from its Western allies, often engaging in undemocratic behaviors, threatening to destabilize the Middle East, and encouraging conflict and violence in the region. However, Turkey holds a critical and strategic role in contemporary geopolitics, and Western powers should tread carefully when dealing with it. A shift in the country’s allegiances could influence everything from trade to military engagement in the region.
