Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-government protests had become commonplace in several nations in the Middle East. Citizens across Iraq, Lebanon, and Algeria took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the social, political, and economic realities of their countries. But, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread, the seemingly endless protests came to a grinding halt, as people quarantined and reverted indoors. However, discontent continues to brew in these nations, and experts are uncertain about what a post-COVID world will look like in the region.
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) rallied to express their disillusionment with their respective governments and the continuing economic decline, which has left many living under the poverty line. Since October 2019, Iraqis have taken to the streets demanding change, the anti-government protests are seen as the largest since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. For too long, Iraq has grappled with government corruption, rampant unemployment, and poor public services. Similarly, Lebanon has seen anti-government protests erupt across the country. The country’s economy was already in shambles prior to the pandemic, and anger towards government leaders, and Hezbollah’s stranglehold, continues to expand. In Algeria, the Hirak Movement began to take charge in February 2019, aiming to overhaul the government and establish an administration that recognizes and safeguards the rule of law, democracy, and fundamental civil liberties.
As the coronavirus spread across these nations, many large-scale protests came to an end, as citizens stayed at home to hinder the transmission of the virus. Although physical demonstrations in these countries have temporarily declined (except for in a few exceptional circumstances), frustration towards their governments has only amplified. Many criticize these administrations for failing to adequately prepare for and respond to the coronavirus, despite early warning signs that the pandemic would hit the Middle East hard. Indeed, the pandemic has hit the region hard, deepening these country’s economic woes.
In Algeria, for example, 60% of its income derives from oil and gas exports. It is well-known that the pandemic has fostered a major collapse in oil prices, and this has undermined the country’s already shaky economic prospects. As a result, the Algerian government has had to cut public spending by one-third. The COVID-19 pandemic has also significantly exacerbated unemployment and inflation in the region. Today, at least 60% of Middle Eastern citizens are under the age of 30, and citizens are hungry for work and opportunity. However, as government corruption continues to fuel a rise in unemployment in the already tenuous region, it has generated greater discontent.
Although the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is not in sight yet, many regional experts are concerned about what the domestic environment in these Middle Eastern nations will look like once the dust settles. The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings can provide a valuable lesson for these discussions. The movements, which shook numerous Middle Eastern nations including Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Libya, and Iraq, were powered by the anger and grievances of Middle Eastern youth who had grown disenchanted with their corrupt leaders and the lack of economic opportunities in their countries. Some experts suggest that we could see a similar spate of uprisings in the Middle East after the pandemic. Given the level of tension in these countries right now, these movements could be more violent than the Arab Spring, and may perhaps even trigger civil wars.
To promote sustainable and positive change in the Middle East, impacted nations should turn to regional and international powers for support and stability. For example, over the past several months, Israel, with the help of outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump, has normalized relations with numerous Middle Eastern nations. Now, Israel could play a critical geopolitical role, perhaps as a mediator should uprisings continue. That said, vulnerable Middle Eastern nations should turn to Western powers for support. While the U.S. and Israel were initially hesitant to intervene during the Arab Spring, the instability and political vacuums that resulted from these uprisings had consequences across the globe. Now, Western powers may be more willing to step in and encourage peace and stability.
Across the Middle East, citizens are growing increasingly frustrated with their governments and with regional terrorist organizations, both of whom wield strong political power and are apathetic, leaving their own people to suffer. Therefore, once restrictions ease, uprisings in these MENA nations are almost inevitable. With frustrations and discontent rising, the world could soon witness another Arab Spring. The populaces of these nations should turn to stabilizing forces, such as Israel and Western nations, in order to enact positive and sustainable change in their countries.
