Over the past several months, Middle Eastern nations such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan have signed peace deals with Israel, normalizing relations between the former geopolitical foes. According to former U.S. President Donald Trump, as many as nine Arab nations could follow suit and establish deals of their own. While these agreements aim to promote peace in the area, they have also expanded the U.S.’ role as a weapons supplier in the region and created the opportunity for Arab nations to purchase advanced U.S. weapons and military equipment. This is sparking an arms race in the Middle East, which, if not mitigated, could significantly undermine efforts to foster security and stability in the region and further fuel geopolitical conflicts.
On September 15, Israel, Bahrain, and the UAE signed the Abraham Accords, formally normalizing relations between the two Arab nations and Israel. Shortly after, Sudan signed a peace agreement and is now the third country to establish ties with Israel since August. But why the sudden desire to normalize relations?
Five days after the Trump administration announced the deal between Israel and the UAE, news reports circulated that the UAE, with Israel’s blessing, was expecting to purchase advanced F-35 combat aircraft and long-range armed drones from the U.S. in exchange for its peace efforts with Israel. The alleged purchases are not a formal part of the Abraham Accords, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied reports that the sale of the warplanes is taking place. However, the reports indicate that the UAE views the purchase as a reward for its participation in the Abraham Accords. U.S. state officials have not provided confirmation, although they have suggested that the formalization of the peace deal increases the likelihood that the UAE will receive such military and defense equipment. Bahrain and Sudan have also demonstrated interest in purchasing this advanced military technology.
Further, Qatar has also submitted a request to buy warplanes from the U.S. As an ally of Turkey and Iran, it is unlikely that Qatar will move to normalize relations with Israel soon. However, it has played a pivotal role in supporting several ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas. As a result, it has curried favor with both the U.S. and Israel.
The introduction of advanced U.S. military weapons and equipment into the Middle East, which is already rife with conflict and geopolitical tensions, could have serious consequences. Several U.S. lawmakers have expressed concerns that the sale of F-35 jets to nations in the Middle East could undermine Israel’s military advantage in the region. Many have also suggested that the only way for Israel to maintain its edge in such a situation would be to purchase more arms from the U.S., injecting more weaponry into the region.
In addition, experts have expressed concerns that although these weapon sales could support counter-terrorism campaigns in the Middle East, there is also a likelihood that these weapons could wind up in the hands of U.S. opponents such as Russia and China, or with militia and other groups in Yemen, Syria, and Libya, thus fueling more conflict and instability in the region.
While the sale of advanced military technology and weapons to anti-Iran nations could help the U.S. and Israel establish a strong coalition in the region, these actions could also encourage Iran to build up its nuclear arsenal, counterbalancing this regional threat and deepening the arms race. As this threat grows, Iran could similarly enable its proxies, such as Hezbollah, to further militarize, generating increased geopolitical tensions. Imported arms play a crucial role in the region’s conflicts and an additional injection of such weaponry could prove disastrous.
While the peace deals serve to create a positive domino effect towards Middle East peace, the promise of access to weapons and defense technologies is serving as an incentive. This is undoubtedly sparking an arms race in the region and might work to undermine the outstanding efforts to establish security and stability in the region, fueling further geopolitical tensions.
