On August 13, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the first Gulf Arab nation to finalize a deal that would normalize diplomatic, commercial, security, and other relations with Israel. Since then, both the Kingdom of Bahrain and Sudan have followed suit, and it is expected that a number of other Middle Eastern nations will join in the quest for regional peace. Experts believe that should normalization efforts continue, the world could witness a new Middle East, one with increased cooperation and less hostility. However, as Israel normalizes relations with more Gulf nations, it will also have to navigate existing geopolitical tensions, carefully traversing the internal conflict between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar.
Tensions between these Gulf nations date back to 2011 when the Arab Spring broke out and Qatar and Saudi Arabia supported different groups during uprisings in the MENA region. In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain also recalled diplomats from Qatar, claiming Qatar was supporting regional armed groups and that it had failed to implement a security accord that required non-interference in other nations’ internal affairs. Over the past several years, the three Gulf nations heavily criticized Qatar’s support for Islamic political movements, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and reporting by the Al Jazeera Media Network.
Most recently, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt severed diplomatic and trade ties with Qatar, due to the nation’s support for terror groups like Hamas and its dangerously close ties with Iran. As a result, the four nations imposed an air, land, and sea blockade on Qatar. Over the past three years, the Gulf nations have made little progress in resolving this conflict. Today, Qatar and the UAE remain involved in an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case after Doha filed a racial discrimination case against the UAE, accusing the country of creating a “climate of fear” for Qataris living in the UAE.
While no progress has been made in mending relations between the Gulf countries, Israel saw the opportunity to assist and mediate the hostilities. Israel and Qatar have not had formal diplomatic contact since 2012. However, when the blockade began, Israel extended a diplomatic olive branch to the country, and the two nations began collaborating on reconstruction and aid in Gaza. In doing this, Israel emphasized that the U.S. should focus on leveraging Qatar’s relationship with Hamas to promote cooperation in the region, rather than seek to undermine Qatar for this relationship. Given that one of Trump’s major foreign policy priorities has been to promote peace and stability in the Middle East, this was a useful strategy and to an extent, it helped to rehabilitate Qatar’s global image.
Simultaneously, Israel has been working to foster stronger relations with the UAE, Qatar’s primary nemesis in the region. Given that Israel has normalized ties with the UAE and Bahrain, and its close ties to Washington, it is uniquely situated to mediate peace between the UAE and its regional foes. Analysts predict that Israel will soon normalize relations with countries such as Oman, further expanding the country’s potential influence as a mediator. If Israel is able to acquire observer status in the proposed Middle East Strategic Alliance, it could further bolster its role as a peace negotiator. The Alliance is slated to include the six GCC countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—along with Egypt and Jordan. It is unclear, however, what the future of this group will be under the Biden administration.
For several years, tensions between Qatar and nations such as the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have been high, and peace has been nowhere in sight. However, as Israel makes moves to normalize relations with more Arab countries, it could assume a strategic position that enables it to mediate peace, resolve geopolitical tensions in the region, and promote greater stability and security. Although this will not be an easy process, it holds significant opportunity for long-term peace in the region, and it should therefore be welcomed by relevant stakeholders.
