Is Normalization on the horizon for Saudi Arabia and Israel?
On August 13, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the first Gulf nation to finalize a deal that would normalize diplomatic, commercial, security, and other relations with Israel. Since then, both the Kingdom of Bahrain and Sudan have also followed suit, and many experts have suggested that should this movement continue, it could prove critical to fostering peace across the Middle East. As speculations arise around which nation could be next, many eyes are falling on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Although several indicators suggest that Saudi Arabia may move to normalize relations with Israel, the complex relationship the two countries have shared in the past, particularly around the Palestinian issue, means that this process will not happen overnight.
Given that Saudi Arabia has been prioritizing reforming its global brand and reputation, many experts speculate that Saudi Arabia could be next to normalize relations with Israel. In April 2016, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) announced Saudi Vision 2030, a strategic framework that is designed to reduce the country’s dependence on oil, diversify its economy, expand its public service sectors, and help rebrand the nation’s global image into one that is more liberal and secular. Along these lines, the Crown Prince has introduced a spate of new laws, which grant citizens, especially women, newfound freedom and rights. In October 2019, the country also began issuing online visas, ushering in a new wave of foreign tourists.
Saudi Arabia has also made numerous socio-political moves that lay the groundwork for the country to formalize a peace deal with Israel. For example, in September, Abdulrahman al-Sudais, the imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, called on Muslims to avoid “passionate emotions and fiery enthusiasm” towards Jews and to “treat them well,” stating that the Prophet Muhammad was friendly to his Jewish neighbor. Sudais’ message, which was broadcast on Saudi state television, was a landmark departure from Sudais’ past sermons, in which he was staunchly pro-Palestine and described Jews as “invaders” and “aggressors.”
Similarly, Mohammad al-Sheikh, the Saudi minister of state and a member of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, published an article in a local newspaper vocalizing his support for the Israel-UAE peace agreement, asserting that Iran and Turkey are the contemporary enemies of the Gulf and that as a result Saudi Arabia and Israel share regional enemies. In his piece, al-Sheikh also outlines that Israel could play a key role in helping Saudi Arabia modernize and achieve its goal of diversifying its economy. Indeed, greater collaboration between the two nations could yield mutually beneficial results in the technology and energy sectors.
Israel has a well-established startup environment that boasts several successful and innovative companies working on cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and defense. A normalization of relations between the two countries could open up opportunities for Israeli startups to tap into the Saudi Arabian venture capital circle. In addition, Saudi Arabia could fuel its desire to modernize the nation by adopting an array of innovative financial technology, cybersecurity, digital health, and agritech technologies produced by Israeli entrepreneurs.
Further, since the UAE and Israel have formalized their peace agreement, the two nations have pledged to cooperate in the energy sectors. These efforts aim to encourage greater coordination and investment around renewable energy, energy efficiency, oil, natural gas resources, and water desalination technologies. As part of its Saudi 2030 vision, the Kingdom, which is the largest OPEC oil producer, seeks to expand its power generation to rely more on solar and wind power. Achieving this goal will not only help produce countless jobs and businesses and ensure a sustainable lifestyle in Saudi Arabia, but it could also ensure greater long-term global energy market stability. Given Israel’s expertise in the energy and technology sectors and their ongoing collaborations in this realm with other key oil-producing nations, a partnership between Israel and Saudi Arabia in this area could prove integral to achieving the Kingdom’s 2030 targets.
Recent socio-political shifts in Saudi Arabia indicate a thawing of relations between the Kingdom and Israel is up and coming. However, given the complicated history the two nations share, normalization of relations will need to be preceded by internal normalization of positive sentiments towards Israel. Announcements by respected officials, such as Sudais and Sheikh, are part and parcel of this important step. They are also key to rebranding Saudi Arabia’s global brand and its official stance on Israel. Going forward, we can expect to see similar trial balloons emerge, with the aim of reforming internal and international perspectives on Saudi-Israeli relations. While normalization is unlikely to happen overnight, it is emerging on the horizon.
